Baseball Card Market Report for August 17-23, 2023 - Top eBay Sales

PLUS -- Is Willie Mays a better investment than Von Hayes?

Aug 25, 2023

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Out of Sight, Out of Market

As I write this, Mike Trout just played his first game for the Angels since before the All-Star break.

The generational superstar is already a lock for the Hall of Fame, of course, and has been a hobby barometer for the last 13 years or so.

But on our list of the most expensive baseball cards sold on eBay last week (bottom of post), Mr. Everything is nowhere to be seen.

That other Mr. Everything is there, natch, as Shohei Ohtani continues to dominate the market. But this the first time in a while that Trout didn’t make the cut.

Will he rocket back into our “standings” next week? Probably, but you never can tell with baseball, and baseball cards.

After all, everyone’s favorite pariah, Barry Bonds, made our list below. Go figure.

And, of course, there’s the little matter of both Trout and Ohtani hitting the shelf (again) this week. Time will tell how that affects their ultimate “levels” among the guys in our next little discussion.

Is Willie Mays a Better Buy than Von Hayes?

The present hobby boom is just the latest in a long line of explosions, though this may be the most dramatic ~~episode of~~ ~~The Bachelor~~ cardboard ignition ever.

So far, at least.

But even though just about all areas of the hobby have seen dramatic price jumps over the last 3+ years, some have done better than others.

And some players have done better than others, too — Ted Simmons is a surprise name on that particular leaderboard.

Can we make some generalizations about which types of players might do the best in the market over time?

If we invested an equal amount of money in, say Willie Mays and Von Hayes cards, which bread basket should we expect to have more baked dough in it a few years down the line?

To start getting a handle on that, I decided to pick out 10 players across different levels of career achievement, ranging from 150+ WAR (Baseball Reference version) down to about 30+ WAR.

Then, for each player, I:

Found his most popular rookie card (based on number graded in the PSA Population Report)
Found the most common graded condition for that card (pop report)
Found the selling price for that card in that condition in both January 2020 and Jaunuary 2023, based on PSA’s Auction Prices Realized tool
Found the difference between those prices, in dollars and as a percentage

The goal was to see if we could identify a player level below which the market stops carrying his cards forward at the same rate that the values for more accompished players increase.

Here’s what I found …

(Note: The following section contains affiliate links to eBay listings for the card being discussed.)

1951 Bowman Willie Mays (#305) - PSA 5

WAR: 156.1
2020 Value: $5500
2023 Value: $16500
Profit/loss: $11000
% change: 200

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1980 Topps Rickey Henderson (#482) - PSA 8

WAR: 111.2
2020 Value: $75
2023 Value: $250
Profit/loss: $175
% change: 233

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1960 Topps Carl Yastrzemski (#148) - PSA 6

WAR: 96.5
2020 Value: $175
2023 Value: $425
Profit/loss: $250
% change: 143

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1967 Topps Steve Carlton (#477) - PSA 7

WAR: 90.2
2020 Value: $180
2023 Value: $380
Profit/loss: $200
% change: 111

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1987 Topps Rod Carew (#569) - PSA 6

WAR: 81.2
2020 Value: $365
2023 Value: $550
Profit/loss: $185
% change: 51

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1987 Topps Barry Larkin (#648) - PSA 9

WAR: 70.5
2020 Value: $5
2023 Value: $10
Profit/loss: $5
% change: 100

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1975 Topps Keith Hernandez (#623) - PSA 8

WAR: 60.3
2020 Value: $30
2023 Value: $90
Profit/loss: $60
% change: 200

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1975 Topps Fred Lynn (#622) - PSA 8

WAR: 50.2
2020 Value: $25
2023 Value: $50
Profit/loss: $25
% change: 100

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1974 Topps Dave Parker (#252) - PSA 8

WAR: 40.1
2020 Value: $60
2023 Value: $125
Profit/loss: $65
% change: 108

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1982 Topps Von Hayes (#141) - PSA 10

WAR: 29.9
2020 Value: $25
2023 Value: $25
Profit/loss: $0
% change: 0

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—

So, are there any patterns here?

Well, we can answer our hypothetical question pretty clearly — Mays > Hayes, at least in this context.

Things are murkier in between, though there’s a general downward trend in profit/loss from top to bottom.

Every RC on our list for a player with 90+ career WAR more than doubled in value during the pandemic.

Aside from Carew and Hayes, though, that pretty much holds for everyone on our list. Larkin and Lynn “merely” doubled, not “more than” doubled.

Hernandez bucks the trend with a 200% increase, but he’s also one of the guys that many fans and collectors consider a Hall of Fame snub. Could be some associated market correction at play.

So, nothing earth-shattering here, but another bit of evidence that you shouldn’t hang your hat on non-HOF-level players if you’re looking for long-term value jumps.

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Now, for some short-term value jumps…

Top Baseball Card Sales on eBay for August 17-23, 2023

(Quick note — this list contains affiliate links to the original eBay listings.)

If you want to see updated 30-day market toppers anytime, we have a couple of resources over on WaxPackGods.com:

Most expensive baseball cards sold in the last 30 days
Most expensive football cards sold in the last 30 days
Most expensive basketball cards sold in the last 30 days

Now, on with the show …

Baseball Card Values Newsletter

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