Baseball Card Market Report for June 4-10, 2020 - Top eBay Sales
PLUS -- Is there a Rookie Mania afterglow??
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Vintage for the Win!
It was a fun seven days for nostalgia on eBay, judging by the list of last week’s top-selling cards, by price, which I’ve included down toward the bottom of this newsletter.
Of the top ten lots on that roster, five hail from before 1970, and those feature some doozies — a real 1-of-1, a graded complete set of a hobby classic, a 99-year-old oddball of the Babe, and one of the hobby’s Holy Grails.
Whew!
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Of course, there is the requisite run of Mike Trout cards throughout the list, and Yankees prospect Jasson Dominguez continues to assert a strong hobby presence.
Even though he’s just 17.
And even though he has yet to play a single pro game.
Many have him pegged as the next Trout, though, or the next Mickey Mantle, or the next Bo Jackson.
In fact, Dominguez’s do-everything tools prompted the Yanks to sign him to a $5.1-million bonus last year out of the Dominican Republic, and prompted Topps to include him in their 2020 Bowman product.
Collectors have gobbled him up, too, but can his cards really sustain $15,000+ price tags, no matter how chrome-y and “true orange” they are? Time will tell, of course.
But what would happen to the value of those cards if “The Martian” doesn’t pan out quite like everyone hopes he will?
Will they drop down to commons-bin level, or will his particular brand of Rookie Card mania keep those pasteboards selling at some sort of premium forever?
In other words …
How Long Does Rookie Card Mania Last?
Rookie cards have been a major hobby driver since I started collecting way back in the early 1980s, and I know there were several pockets of “Rookie Card Mania” even before then.
But how long does the hype of a popular rookie card affect card prices?
It’s an interesting question that encompasses a wide range of hobby market forces, but ...
You won’t find the answer in the cards of Hall of Famers, not really, because those guys did plenty throughout their careers to stay in the limelight and build their cases as the greats of the game.
But the truth is, most of those hotshot youngsters who light up the hobby at some point or another either don’t live up to their potential or can’t keep up a torrid early pace.
What of those guys? Is there an afterglow effect for the rookie cards of players who shone brightly for a little while, then sort of disappeared?
Well, there’s at least one way to find out …
To the numbers!
I’m going to start this investigation with the first guy I remember hearing about as a rookie star, even though I came along several years later — Mark “The Bird” Fidrych.
Fidrych was a tenth-round selection by the Detroit Tigers in the 1974 Draft, but it took him less than two years to progress from high school to the Majors.
He made his MLB debut at the age of 21 in April 1976 and stayed in the Tigers’ rotation all year long, running up a flabbergasting line: 19-9, 2.34 ERA, a whopping 24 complete games, and a league-leading personality that drew fans to the ballpark in droves even though Detroit was a fifth-place club.
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By all accounts, Fidrych’s 1977 Topps card was a scorcher by hobby standards of the day, and it was still a curiosity by the early 80s — certainly worth more than a common, and drawing plenty of attention even though The Bird blew out his arm and retired in short order.
Where does that card stand today?
Well, let’s take a look, with the help of a couple of resources from PSA.
First, the Population Report shows that, as of this writing, PSA has graded 886 Fidrych RCs. Compare that to 856 copies of the 1977 Topps Steve Carlton, a four-time Cy Young winner and Hall of Famer. The most common grade for those cards of The Bird is PSA 8, with 394 slabbed in that condition.
Now, if we hop over to the PSA Sports Market Report Price Guide, we see the Fidrych rookie at $25 in PSA 8. Again, for comparison, Carlton checks in at a mere $5.
And a common from the 1977 set? Just $3, which makes The Bird 8.33 times as valuable as Joe Blow. Let’s call this the Common Multiplier, or CM.
Now, you might expect that any rookie card might have a CM > 1, since it’s an RC, and since the hobby likes RCs.
But if we look at card #67 in that same 1977 Topps set, we find Joaquin Andujar in all his rookie glory, with a price tag of … $3. That’s a CM of one, in case you didn’t already do the math.
And, if you want to get all Sabermetrics about it, Andujar provided more value to his teams over a longer career than Fidrych did.
So there certainly seems to be a significant afterglow for the Fidrych card here, and none for Andujar — who never did cause much of a hobby stir.
But maybe Andujar is just getting lost in his RC-mate’s glare?
Maybe. Let’s make another comparison, this time to a guy even more like The Bird.
According to the Similarity Scores over at Baseball Reference, former Seattle Mariners righty Erik Hanson is the best comp for Fidrych through age 25, and there was no age 26 for The Bird in MLB terms.
Hanson pitched another eight years, though, finishing at age 33 with nearly twice as many WAR (22.1) as Fidrych (11.3). Hanson never made a national splash, though (even with his 15-5 mark for the Red Sox in 1995).
So … what of Hanson’s rookie cards?
Well, Hanson made his cardboard debut in most of the 1989 sets. We’ll pick the inaugural Upper Deck issue since that one’s such a hobby staple.
So far, PSA has seen just 16 of the Hanson UD rookie cards come in for grading. Of those, nine have scored a MT (9) rating.
There’s not even a whiff of Hanson in the SMR Price Guide. Same thing for his Donruss Rookies and Bowman Tiffany and Fleer and all the rest.
If you search for that Hanson UD card on eBay, you’ll find it raw for about a buck on its own, or in one of those “complete your set” deals where you can pick any common … again, for about a buck.
It’s priced like a common, in other words.
In other other words, it has a Common Multiplier of ONE.
So, is there a Rookie Mania afterglow effect? Sure seems that way for The Bird, to the tune of multiplying expected values (based on overall player performance) by a factor of eight-plus.
Once a hobby star, always a hobby star. Maybe.
Let me know if you enjoyed this analysis, and I might do it all over again with different hobby burners who eventually found themselves on the tundra. I have a few guys in mind already but would love to hear your list, too.
Do you think those guys have held up as well as Fidrych, in rookie card terms?
While you ponder that question, on to the big eBay sellers for the last week …
Top Baseball Card Sales on eBay for June 4-10, 2020
1) 1968 Topps #177 Nolan Ryan Rookie RC FINAL Negative/Transparency Topps Vault 1/1
Selling Price: $89,995
Date Sold: 06/04/2020
Sales Method: Buy It Now
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2) 1921 American Caramel Co. E121 Babe Ruth SGC 4 VGEX
Selling Price: $31,750
Date Sold: 06/08/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
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3) 1951 Bowman Graded Baseball Set
Selling Price: $29,000
Date Sold: 06/09/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
See listing (affiliate link)
4) 2019 Topps Transcendent Gold Mike Trout 1/1 Auto Large Oversized!! Holy Grail
Selling Price: $20,000
Date Sold: 06/09/2020
Sales Method: Buy It Now
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5) JASSON DOMINGUEZ 2020 20 BOWMAN CHROME ORANGE REFRACTOR ROOKIE AUTO #ED 12/25
Selling Price: $18,500
Date Sold: 06/07/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
See listing (affiliate link)
6) 2019 Bowman Chrome Wander Franco Orange Refractor Auto #d 10/25 BGS 9.5 Gem Mint
Selling Price: $17,500
Date Sold: 06/06/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
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7) 2020 Bowman Chrome Orange Refractor Jasson Dominguez RC Rookie AUTO 21/25
Selling Price: $16,200
Date Sold: 06/08/2020
Sales Method: Auction (51 bids)
See listing (affiliate link)
8) 1952 Topps #311 Mickey Mantle RC Rookie HOF PSA Altered " Fantastic Centering "
Selling Price: $15,613
Date Sold: 06/10/2020
Sales Method: Auction (56 bids)
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9) Babe Ruth 1933 Goudey #144 PSA 6
Selling Price: $15,463
Date Sold: 06/07/2020
Sales Method: Auction (19 bids)
See listing (affiliate link)
10) 2020 Bowman Jasson Dominguez Chrome Prospect true ORANGE Refractor Auto 10/25
Selling Price: $15,000
Date Sold: 06/08/2020
Sales Method: Auction (62 bids)
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11) 1970 Topps Hank Aaron #500 PSA 10 GEM MINT
Selling Price: $14,500
Date Sold: 06/08/2020
Sales Method: Buy It Now
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12) 2009 Bowman Chrome Mike Trout RC Auto Rookie BGS 9.5 GEM MINT w/ 10 AUTO
Selling Price: $13,508
Date Sold: 06/08/2020
Sales Method: Auction (24 bids)
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13) 2013 Bowman Chrome Draft Prospects #BCAAJ Aaron Judge (Orange Ref /25) TRUE 9.5
Selling Price: $13,000
Date Sold: 06/10/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
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14) " Historic " 2004 Leaf Certified Cuts BABE RUTH AUTO Swatch Jersey 1/2 HOF
Selling Price: $12,879
Date Sold: 06/10/2020
Sales Method: Auction (51 bids)
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15) 1953 Topps Jackie Robinson #1 PSA 8 P649
Selling Price: $11,600
Date Sold: 06/08/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
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16) 1971 Topps Pete Rose Cincinnati Reds #100 PSA 9 - Rare - Pop 12
Selling Price: $11,500
Date Sold: 06/06/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
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17) BEN BALLER MIKE TROUT TOPPS PROJECT 2020 ERROR AUTOGRAPH CARD 1/1
Selling Price: $10,300
Date Sold: 06/09/2020
Sales Method: Auction (50 bids)
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18) 2020 Bowman Chrome First Bowman Auto Bobby Witt Jr. Red Refractor 2/5
Selling Price: $10,000
Date Sold: 06/08/2020
Sales Method: Auction (1 bids)
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19) 2020 Bowman Chrome Bo Bichette True Red Autograph Refractor 3/5 RC SSP BLUE JAYS
Selling Price: $10,000
Date Sold: 06/10/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
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20) 2011 Topps Update Walmart Blue Border #US175 Mike Trout Angels RC Rookie PSA 10
Selling Price: $9,995
Date Sold: 06/06/2020
Sales Method: Auction (1 bids)
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21) 2011 Topps Update Diamond Anniversary Mike Trout Rookie RC PSA 10 Gem Mint US175
Selling Price: $9,750
Date Sold: 06/06/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
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22) 1989 Bowman Tiffany #220 Ken Griffey Jr. Mariners RC Rookie HOF SGC 100 PRISTINE
Selling Price: $9,555
Date Sold: 06/09/2020
Sales Method: Auction (46 bids)
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23) Topps Project 2020 Lot 1-70!!! Plus 3 Extra Trout Cards
Selling Price: $9,500
Date Sold: 06/05/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
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24) T206 Ty Cobb BAT ON SHOULDER Piedmont 150 Detroit HOF PSA 5 EX " Looks EX-MT "
Selling Price: $9,002
Date Sold: 06/10/2020
Sales Method: Auction (56 bids)
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25) 2011 Bowman Chrome Draft Mike Trout Autograph RC PSA 10 w 10 Auto POP 6 PMJS
Selling Price: $9,000
Date Sold: 06/10/2020
Sales Method: Best offer accepted
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When I was a kid the Bird rookie was the Holy Grail. I’m from Detroit and the Bird was beyond hero status. My friends and I tried all summer to pull that card. We would ride our bikes up to the local market to buy pack after pack. Back then cards were sold everywhere including drug stores etc. I searched through clear packaged cards hoping for the impossible. By August my friends started to give up but not me. I was beginning to wonder if the card even existed. Maybe it was one of those suburban myths that someone’s cousin told to their brother and passed It on On a hot, rainy August day I went with my mom to the drug store. I got one pack and opened it on the way home....There it was...The Holy Grail...The Fidrych rookie. My eight year old self couldn’t believe it. I still have it...its a bit worse for wear because I wouldn’t let that card out of my sight and it went with me everywhere. That was one magical summer when things lined up perfect...