Baseball Card Market Report for March 30-April 5, 2023 - Top eBay Sales

PLUS -- Do Fast Team Starts Mean More Valuable Cards?

Apr 07, 2023

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Say … Hey! That’s an Amazing Baseball Card!

As if the baseball card market itself had been waiting for Opening Day to unveil something spectacular … BAM!

There was the Say Hey Kid himself taking down all cardboard comers over the weekend.

To wit, and as you can see in our weekly rundown of the top-selling cards on eBay at the bottom of this post, a stunning 1952 Topps Willie Mays “rookie” card changed hands on April 2.

On the strength of 145 bids, that beauty hammered down just north of *gulp* 175K.

While a huge sum, that total seems almost like the bargain basement when you compare it to the other PSA 8 copies of this card that have sold over the last two years.

The PSA Auction Prices Realized tool lists seven such sales from May of 2021 through May of 2022, with prices ranging from $180,000 to $258,000.

The average among those big price tags was just a shade over $226,000.

So, do the two successive step-backs — first to 180K and now to 175K — provide further evidence for the idea that the market is softer than it was a couple years back?

Tiny sample size warnings and all that aside, it’s hard to not see this as another sign that we’re still coming out of the rare hobby air of the pandemic.

Of course, this latest Mays still sold for about four times as much as it would have in 2019, or even through most of 2020.

We’re still talking big, big bucks for a hunk of cardboard, in other words.

And, with a new season starting to unfold, we finally have some on-field stories to help define the market over the next six months or so.

That’s good, too, because we have questions like …

Do Fast Team Starts Mean More Valuable Cards?

One of the many (many) fun parts about the beginning of a new baseball season is following all the streaks that start right off the bat.

Among the most impactful of those are hot starts by teams — run off a string of victories in April, and a club can buld a lead in the standings that has some staying power.

I personally love these streaks, and I always root for some team to go 162-0 … or even 0-162. I’m selfish that way.

Those season-opening winning streaks always bring new names to the fore, too. And those names tend to stick with us for a long time, whether the players involved prove to be true stars or not.

Ah, but does being part of a team that streaks out of the gate (not THAT kind of streaking) mean anything for a player’s card values in the long term?

To find out, I did a familiar thing.

First, I found five members of all-time fast-starting teams, who are not Hall of Famers (to remove that honor from the list of factors affecting card value). Then, for each of the five, I:

Found one of his top historical comps who wasn’t on a fast starter, according to Baseball Reference’s Similarity Scores (or other swags in some cases)
Found the top rookie card for each of those two players, by measure of number of graded card sales
Found the Card Value Multiplier for each of those cards
Found the Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM) for the two cards, with streaker dude in the numerator and his comp in the denominator

Here’s are how this week’s matchups played out …

(The following section contains affiliate links to eBay listings for the cards being discussed.)

Barbaro Garbey v. Gene Locklear

Garbey was a key member of the fabled 1984 Detroit Tigers, who started 8-0 and 35-5 on their way to immortality. The rookie infielder played in 29 of those first 40 games and hit over .400 into May.

Locklear was a journeyman who spent parts of five seasons with the Padres, Yankees, and Reds, though he did rake at well above league-average production (133 OPS+) in 100 games for the ‘75 Friars.

1984 Fleer Update Barbaro Garbey (#U-42) - PSA 10

WAR: 0.2
Value: $20
Common Value: $10
Multiplier: 2

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1975 Topps Gene Locklear (#13) - PSA 8

WAR: 1.4
Value: $20
Common Value: $5
Multiplier: 4

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 2.0

Rafael Ramirez v. Wil Cordero

Ramirez was the Braves’ starting shorstop in every game as Atlanta raced to a record 13-0 mark en route to a division title in the old National League West. He was an All-Star two years later.

Cordero, meanwhile, was a hobby wunderkind and played for some pretty good Expos teams, including an excellent 1994 squad squashed by The Strike.

1981 Topps Rafael Ramirez (#192) - PSA 9

WAR: 6
Value: $20
Common Value: $5
Multiplier: 4

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1993 Topps Finest Refractor Wil Cordero (#123) - PSA 9

WAR: 6
Value: $250
Common Value: $50
Multiplier: 5

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 0.8

B.J. Surhoff v. Tim Wallach

Surhoff was a rookie catcher who played in eight of the 1987 Brewers’ season-opening 13 wins. And, though the Brew Crew sank to third place in the old American League East by season’s end, the mystique of their April exploits lingers on.

Wallach was a five-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove winner for the Expos in the 1980s (and 1990), and his legend has only grown among card collectors during the internet age.

1987 Topps B.J. Surhoff (#216) - PSA 9

WAR: 34.4
Value: $15
Common Value: $5
Multiplier: 3

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1982 Topps Tim Wallach (#191) - PSA 9

WAR: 38.5
Value: $20
Common Value: $5
Multiplier: 4

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 0.75

Dwayne Murphy v. Bobby Murcer

The 1981 A’s have sort of been lost in the shuffle of that year’s strike and all that’s come since, but they started 11-0, then an American League record. Murphy was their centerfielder in all those games and would go on to win a total of six Gold Gloves while developing 30-homer power in the cavernous Coliseum.

For his part, Murcer would overcome the initial “next Mickey Mantle” hype to develop into a five-time All-Star despite playing for some pretty rough Yankees and Cubs teams.

1979 Topps Dwayne Murphy (#711) - PSA 9

WAR: 33.3
Value: $20
Common Value: $5
Multiplier: 4

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1966 Topps Bobby Murcer (#469) - PSA 8

WAR: 32
Value: $150
Common Value: $20
Multiplier: 8

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 0.5

Curt Blefary v. Jim King

Blefary was the starting leftfielder as the 1966 Orioles raced out to a 12-1 record to start the season. He was also the reigning American League Rookie of the Year Award, which no doubt gives his name a little extra oomph all these years later.

King managed to generate double-digit power for a string of forgetable Cubs and Senators teams (as well as a few others) in the 1950s and 1960s.

1965 Topps Curt Blefary (#49) - PSA 8

WAR: 11.1
Value: $22
Common Value: $14
Multiplier: 2

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1956 Topps Jim King (#74) - PSA 7

WAR: 11.1
Value: $35
Common Value: $30
Multiplier: 1

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)
Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 2.0

—
What do we see here?

Not much, really. The Streakers went 2-3, by measure of MoM. The Plodders went 3-2.

It’s a wash.

Move along, as the local purveyor of lil’ doggies might advise.

But wait! Before you move too far along, don’t completely ignore the players who will be part of this year’s fast-starting teams.

I’m telling you, you’re going to regret not stocking up on Buck Farmer rookie cards when you look back in 30 years and realize how instrumental he was in my Reds’ blazing start to the 2023 season.

Why, he might even end up on a list like …

Top Baseball Card Sales on eBay for March 30-April 5, 2023

(Quick note — this list contains affiliate links to the original eBay listings.)

If you want to see updated 30-day market toppers anytime, we have a couple of resources over on WaxPackGods.com:

Most expensive baseball cards sold in the last 30 days
Most expensive football cards sold in the last 30 days
Most expensive basketball cards sold in the last 30 days

Now, on with the show …

Baseball Card Values Newsletter

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