Baseball Card Market Report for March 16-22, 2023 - Top eBay Sales

PLUS -- How long does prospect hype last in the card market?

Mar 24, 2023

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The King and The Kid

Take a look at the top-selling baseball cards on eBay last week (bottom of this post), and you’ll see a couple of familiar names.

To wit, home run king (still, to some, at least) Hank Aaron laps the field with a stunning graded rookie card.

And then, right behind him, is the “kid” who helped redefine rookie card mania — none other than Ken Griffey, Jr., himself … even though that particular Junior is NOT a rookie.

Whatever — seeing those two classic sluggers (and all-arounders) sorta makes all seem right with the baseball world as we get ready for Opening Day in less than a week.

There are plenty of other old-time favorites and shiny new faces on the list, too.

And, speaking of the shiny new faces of all the up-cand-comers …

Does Prospect Hype Last in the Card Market?

In case you haven’t noticed, the college basketball world is now firmly entrenched in March Madness.

Over in Baseball Land, and here in Hobby Land, there’s another version of March Madness — the hype around a new season, streaking teams, and — maybe most prominently — hot prospects.

Baseball cards and collectors have always loved prospects, from little boys waiting for their first glimpse of new cards in 1950s all the way up to today’s sustained rookie-card craze.

But does the hype do anything to boost card values in the long term?

To find out, I searched my memory banks for five top-flight prospects who caused all kinds of stir, but who didn’t quite live up to the Hall of Fame billing. Then, for each of the five, I:

Found one of his top historical comps who wasn’t quite as ballyhooed off the bat, accoding to Baseball Reference’s Similarity Scores (or other swags in some cases)
Found the top rookie card for each of those two players, by measure of number of graded card sales
Found the Card Value Multiplier for each of those cards
Found the Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM) for the two cards, with the hyped dude in the numerator and his comp in the denominator

It’s a familiar formula if you’ve been around these parts long.

Here’s are how this week’s matchups played out …

Brien Taylor v. Ben Hayes

Taylor was maybe the most hyped prospect ever, and he was going to turn the Yankees around while winning untold Cy Young Awards.

Hayes … well, hardly anyone has heard of him, but he actually made it to the majors.

Taylor can’t say the same.

1992 Topps Brien Taylor (#6) - PSA 10

WAR: 0
Value: $50
Common Value: $2
Multiplier: 25

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1983 Fleer Ben Hayes (#591) - PSA 10

WAR: -0.9
Value: $15
Common Value: $15
Multiplier: 1

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Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 25

Gregg Jefferies v. Kevin Seitzer

If Taylor wasn’t the biggest hype of the century, it was Jefferies.

He turned in a sometimes-All-Star-level career, which wasn’t quite up to the Next-Mickey-Mantle standards everyone laid on him.

Seitzer came from obscurity, prospect-wise, to build a career that measure up well to Jefferies’ — even tops him in some respects.

1988 Fleer Glossy Gregg Jefferies (#137) - PSA 10

WAR: 19.4
Value: $22.5
Common Value: $5
Multiplier: 5

Check prices on eBay (affiliate link)

1987 Topps Traded Tiffany Kevin Seitzer (#111T) - PSA 10

WAR: 28.9
Value: $20
Common Value: $10
Multiplier: 2

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Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 2.5

Todd Van Poppel v. Jason Grimsley

Van Poppel was right there with Taylor as THE big names among pitching prospects in the early 1990s. He lasted for over a decade in the majors but never quite stepped out of the Roger Clemens mold most had cast him in.

Grimsley was a low-strikeout starter who became a long reliever. Nothing flashy, but ultimately more valuable on the field than Van Poppel.

1991 Upper Deck Todd Van Poppel (#53) - PSA 8

WAR: -0.3
Value: $9
Common Value: $1
Multiplier: 9

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1991 Topps Desert Shield Jason Grimsley (#173) - PSA 9

WAR: 5.4
Value: $20
Common Value: $15
Multiplier: 1

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Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 9

Ben Grieve v. Ivan Calderon

Grieve, the son of long-time executive Tom Grieve, was one of the first young players to embrace the value of getting on base. All those walks and good power helped him win the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 1998, but he never found another gear and was done by 30.

Calderon came out of nowhere to provide some power in the mid-to-late 1980s and crafted a nice, if understated career.

1995 Bowman's Best Blue Ben Grieve (#25) - PSA 10

WAR: 8.4
Value: $20
Common Value: $3
Multiplier: 7

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1986 Topps Ivan Calderon (#382) - PSA 9

WAR: 12
Value: $5
Common Value: $3
Multiplier: 2

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Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 3.5

Steve Avery v. Steve Trout

Of all the Braves young pitching prospects in the late 1980s, Avery was probably the most highly touted of all of them. He did win 18 games twice early in his career, but a 1993 underarm injury spelled the beginning of the end.

As the son of Dizzy Trout, Steve Trout was sorta hyped in his own way. He spent 12 years in the majors, mostly as a starter.

1989 Topps Steve Avery (#784) - PSA 10

WAR: 13.8
Value: $40
Common Value: $5
Multiplier: 8

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1980 Topps Steve Trout (#83) - PSA 9

WAR: 13.3
Value: $10
Common Value: $5
Multiplier: 2

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Multiplier of Multipliers (MoM): 4

—

The verdict is pretty clear here, as every one of our big-hype players trounces their competition in terms of current card values as compared to commons.

That’s not to say you won’t lose money investing in big-name youngsters, but it seems like the glow of super prospect status lasts a long, long time.

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Now, here are some other cards that have some legs in the hobby …

Top Baseball Card Sales on eBay for March 16-22, 2023

(Quick note — this list contains affiliate links to the original eBay listings.)

If you want to see updated 30-day market toppers anytime, we have a couple of resources over on WaxPackGods.com:

Most expensive baseball cards sold in the last 30 days
Most expensive football cards sold in the last 30 days
Most expensive basketball cards sold in the last 30 days

Now, on with the show …

Baseball Card Values Newsletter

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